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The Fed aims to keep inflation at 2% over the longer run. Meanwhile, among the 20 countries that use the euro, annual consumer price inflation has slowed steadily since the start of the year. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said earlier this month that she would favor a rate hike “should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.”So why does the United States appear to have a bigger inflation problem than Europe? Some economists argue there isn’t actually much daylight between the US and European rates of inflation, pointing to a quirk in the US measures. The measure is designed to track inflation in the real estate market while accounting for the fact that most Americans own their homes.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Paul Donovan, Simon MacAdam, , MacAdam, ” Carsten Brzeski, Janet Yellen, Jim Watson, Brzeski, , ” Davide Oneglia Organizations: London CNN, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, PCE, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics, ING, CNN, Monetary Fund, Washington, Reuters, Getty, , ECB, Lombard Locations: United States, Europe, Centreville , Maryland, AFP, Russia, Ukraine
Europe’s central bankers are trying to get out of the shadow of the United States. Now, European Central Bank policymakers are emphasizing how much the inflation problem has eased in the eurozone. All week, Europe’s policymakers reiterated their growing confidence that high inflation was dissipating in the eurozone and that their 2 percent inflation target was in sight. The E.C.B., which sets interest rates for all 20 countries that use the euro, has signaled it could cut rates at its next policy meeting in early June. “We’re clearly in a disinflation process,” said Gabriel Makhlouf, governor of Ireland’s central bank and one of the 26 members of the E.C.B.’s governing council.
Persons: “ We’re, , Gabriel Makhlouf Organizations: European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Locations: United States, Washington, Ireland’s, U.S
One strategist, however is looking keenly at European equities, and notes that "Europe isn't a boring market." "You would hope that will translate through to the stock market in terms of company earnings growth in Europe. "While you might see some kind of short-term downturn, in the longer-term the picture is very positive for the sector," Field added. He sees value in payments, which he described as "one of the most undervalued parts of European financial services." The sector has trailed market performance, with valuations looking "interesting" over the last 12 months, Morningstar noted in its recent report.
Persons: Michael Field, Field, Morningstar Organizations: CNBC Pro, European Central Bank, Consumer, Swatch Group, Financial, Morningstar, ING Bank, Group, Health, Novo Nordisk Locations: U.S, Europe, Netherlands, British, Swiss
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFederated Hermes: European banking was 'about cost control' over the last yearFilippo Alloatti of Federated Hermes discusses the outlook for the European Central Bank's monetary policy.
Persons: Filippo Alloatti, Federated Hermes Organizations: Federated, Central
Firm dollar drags yen down closer to intervention range
  + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
A firm U.S. dollar had the yen locked near a fresh 34-year low on Tuesday, keeping investors on heightened intervention watch as they looked ahead to key U.S. inflation report and the Bank of Japan's rate decision this week. A firm U.S. dollar had the yen locked near a fresh 34-year low on Tuesday, keeping investors on heightened intervention watch as they looked ahead to key U.S. inflation report and the Bank of Japan's rate decision this week. Traders have been keeping wary eye as yen slips towards 155.00, a level considered by many participants as the new trigger for intervention by Japanese authorities. The weak yen complicates the BOJ's policy path, with some market players betting the central bank could come under pressure to hike rates sooner than it wants to slow the currency's decline. Markets are currently pricing in a 46% chance of the Fed's first rate cut starting in September, with November not far behind at 42%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Carol Kong, Shunichi Suzuki, BoE, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Bank of, Traders, Bank of Japan's, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Japan's Finance, Federal Reserve, Investors, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's, European Central Bank, Bank of England Locations: Japan, Iran, Israel, Tokyo, Japan's, U.S, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Kong
Currencies calm but cautious after a weary week
  + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
U.S. one hundred dollar bills are being shown in this picture illustration taken in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Dec. 15, 2023. Eyes are on the yen this week, with the Bank of Japan's, or BOJ, Friday policy review the notable item on the economic calendar. The yen has been one of the biggest losers against the dollar this year, with losses mounting to 9%. The ECB's Robert Holzmann, however, said the ECB probably will not cut rates this year as much as planned if the Fed does not move. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden alluded last week to Britain's inflation slowing as expected.
Persons: Chris Weston, Weston, Kazuo Ueda, BoE, ECB policymaker Madis Muller, Christine Lagarde, Robert Holzmann, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Dave Ramsden, Sterling, Bitcoin Organizations: U.S ., Bank of Japan's, Federal Reserve, Monetary Fund, Bank, Washington , Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Bank of England, ECB policymaker, ECB, Treasury Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, East, Tehran, Iran, Washington, United States, Japan, South Korea, Washington ,, U.S
European stock markets are set to open sharply lower Friday, rounding off a week in which escalating tensions in the Middle East and repricing of interest rate expectations have been in focus. After a strong start to 2024, the index is heading for its first monthly loss of the year in April. In the latest back-and-forth between the countries, Israel launched a limited direct military attack on Iranian soil early Friday morning. Investors are monitoring a slew of commentary on the path of interest rates emerging from the International Monetary Fund's Spring Meetings in New York. But markets have become significantly less confident there will be a June cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve or Bank of England, after two hotter-than-expected inflation prints.
Persons: François Villeroy de Galhau, Christine Lagarde Organizations: International, European Central Bank, CNBC, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England Locations: Israel, New York
The ECB opted to hold rates steady in April and next meets to vote on monetary policy on June 6. Christine Lagarde, president of the ECBThe ECB's figurehead delivered a firm message that reflected her statements in recent press conferences: markets should expect an interest rate cut soon, barring major surprises. watch nowGabriel Makhlouf, governor of the Central Bank of IrelandMakhlouf said the most recent data sets had shifted his view on rates. "We don't follow the Fed... and now the ECB will be the central bank to be followed," Šimkus said. One could have cut rates way back in March or even April," he continued, adding that he hoped a majority of Governing Council members would back a June cut.
Persons: Kirill Kudryavtsev, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Galhau, Villeroy, Karen Tso, Joachim Nagel, Germany's, Nagel, Robert Holzmann, Mario Centeno, Centeno, Gabriel Makhlouf, Central Bank of Ireland Makhlouf, we've, Makhlouf, Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, Boris Vujčić, Jerome Powell, Vujčić, Gediminas Šimkus, Bank of Lithuania Šimkus, Šimkus, Edward Scicluna, Central Bank of Malta Scicluna, Kazāks, Bank of Latvia Kazāks, Olli Rehn, Rehn Organizations: Afp, Getty, International, European Central Bank, CNBC, ECB, Bank of France, Council, Austrian Central Bank One, Bank of Portugal, Central Bank of Ireland, National Bank of, Croatian National Bank, Federal, U.S, Bank of Lithuania, Central Bank of, Governing, Bank of Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, New York, ECB's, National Bank of Belgium, U.S, Europe, Central Bank of Malta, Bank of Latvia, Bank of Finland
Aussie, New Zealand dollars tumble on risk-off moves; yen rises
  + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The risk-sensitive Australian dollar tumbled 0.8% to $0.6370, and the New Zealand dollar fell 0.63% to $0.5864. ABC News reported late on Thursday that Israeli missiles have hit a site in Iran, citing a U.S. official. The shift in rate expectations has come on the back of a slew of resilient U.S. economic data that has repeatedly surpassed expectations, alongside still-sticky inflationary pressures. "Although policy easing may arrive a bit later than previously expected, we still believe the FOMC will start cutting rates before the year is out," said economists at Wells Fargo. Against a basket of currencies, the greenback rose 0.1% to 106.28, hovering near a more than five-month high of 106.51.
Persons: Carol Kong, I'm, Kazuo Ueda, it'll, CBA's, Jerome Powell Organizations: New, Hamas, U.S ., U.S, New Zealand, ABC News, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: New Zealand, Iran, United States, Japan, South Korea, U.S, CBA's Kong, Wells Fargo
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB's Boris Vujčić: We will 'run our policy independently of the Fed'Boris Vujčić, Croatian central bank governor and the European Central Bank's Governing Council Member, says there have been "obvious divergences between the U.S. and Europe since the start of the inflation cycle."
Persons: Boris Vujčić Organizations: Central Bank's Governing, Member, U.S Locations: Croatian, Europe
The Bank of England could still cut interest rates in May, Morgan Stanley has said, in an increasingly rare call of confidence as market sentiment supporting such a move wanes. "We still entertain a May rate cut," chief economist Jens Eisenschmidt told CNBC's "Street Signs" on Wednesday, reiterating the bank's commitment to an earlier call. The Wall Street bank's contrarian view is now some way off consensus, which currently prices in an initial BOE rate cut in September, according to LSEG data. "In general, the central banks are all, to some extent, in the same boat. Morgan Stanley on Monday revised its ECB rate cut forecast, following an earlier revision in its Fed outlook.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jens Eisenschmidt, CNBC's, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Morgan Stanley's, Eisenschmidt, there's Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: City of London, London, United Kingdom, Europe, U.S
An employee holds one kilogram gold bullion at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices climbed on Thursday, as risks of a widening Middle East conflict raised bullion's safe-haven appeal, overshadowing pressures from higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates. Spot gold was up 0.6% at $2,374.97 per ounce, as of 0429 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $2,431.29 last Friday. Although, "U.S. interest rates remaining higher for a longer may be adding some pressure to the ongoing boost for gold ... Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of holding non-yielding bullion.
Persons: Kelvin Wong, Benjamin Netanyahu, Wong, Jerome Powell, Mario Centeno Organizations: Co, Asia Pacific Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, OANDA, Israel, Iran
Investors have been raking in income thanks to attractive yields in the U.S. bond market. Investing in global bond funds Individual investors can add exposure to foreign bonds through global bond funds. There are hedged funds, which hedge foreign currency exposure back to the U.S. dollar and therefore reduce currency risk. "It's good to be diversified because foreign bond exposure is a massive part of the global bond markets," Mulach said. Here are Morningstar's top picks for global bond exposure: The Pimco strategies keep the bulk of their non-U.S. currency exposure hedged back to the U.S. dollar.
Persons: Rick Rieder, Rieder, Collin Martin, Martin, It's, Mike Mulach, Mulach, Rick Rieder's, Darla Mercado Organizations: BlackRock, SEC, Investment, U.S ., European, European Central Bank, Federal, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Morningstar, U.S, Strategic Global Bond Fund, Investor, Morningstar . Dodge, Cox's Global Bond Fund Locations: U.S, Europe, BlackRock, Mexico, Brazil
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB’s Holzmann says biggest threat to strategy is the geopolitical situation in the Middle EastEuropean Central Bank policymaker Robert Holzmann, who also serves as Austria's central bank governor, says geopolitical risk is the biggest threat to the ECB’s strategy.
Persons: Holzmann, Robert Holzmann Organizations: East European Central Bank
Tensions in the Middle East pose the biggest threat to a prospective interest rate cut from the European Central Bank, according to ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann. "At this stage, I think the biggest threat is geopolitics, because we have seen what's happened in the Middle East," Austrian central bank governor Holzmann told CNBC's Karen Tso on Wednesday. Holzmann singled out ramifications for energy prices as the single most important factor in terms of Europe's fight to tame inflation. "As summer approaches we can start reducing the level of restriction in monetary policy, provided that inflation continues to fall as projected." He recently told Reuters that the ECB could moderate rates in June, indicating a growing consensus for a near-term move.
Persons: Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, Karen Tso, policymaker Olli Rehn, Rehn Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, International Monetary, Bank of, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Reuters Locations: Austrian, Hormuz, Iran, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, Bank of Finland, London
Alex Kraus | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesEuropean Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel said Wednesday that a rate cut for the institution looks increasingly likely for June, but added that certain parts of the incoming inflation data still look higher than desired. watch nowEarlier Wednesday, Mario Centeno, governor of Portugal's central bank, said it was "about time to change this monetary policy cycle." The ECB's June interest rate decision would be "very important," he said. Markets are widely pricing in the first rate cut from the ECB to take place in June. watch nowEarlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that unless there were any major shocks, the ECB was on track to cut interest rates soon.
Persons: Joachim Nagel, Alex Kraus, Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel, Germany's Bundesbank, Karen Tso, " Nagel, , Mario Centeno, CNBC's Tso, Christine Lagarde, disinflation, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, wasn't Organizations: Deutsche Bundesbank, Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg, Getty, Central Bank, ECB Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Washington ,, Europe, Portugal's, Austrian, East
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with German central bank chief Joachim NagelEuropean Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel speaks to CNBC’s Karen Tso at the IMF Spring Meetings taking place in Washington, D.C.
Persons: Joachim Nagel, Joachim Nagel European Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel, Karen Tso Organizations: Joachim Nagel European Central Bank Locations: Washington ,
Valdis Dombrovskis, Vice-President of the European Commission for the Euro & Social Dialogue, photographed at the Renaissance Harbour View Hotel in Wan Chai. 02DEC17 SCMP/ Xiaomei Chen (Photo by Chen Xiaomei/South China Morning Post via Getty Images)The European Union's trade chief on Wednesday warned against the "weaponization" of trade amid the latest ratcheting up of tensions between the U.S. and China. EU trade commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis told CNBC that he did not believe trade "protectionism" was the answer to heightened geopolitical tensions, but insisted that the bloc was willing to defend itself in the new trade environment. "The geopolitical landscape is changing, it's getting more fragmented, it's getting more conflictual, we see the weaponization of trade. So we need to equip ourselves also as the European Union to function in this more conflictual world," Dombrovskis told CNBC's Karen Tso.
Persons: Valdis Dombrovskis, 02DEC17, Xiaomei Chen, Chen Xiaomei, Dombrovskis, Karen Tso, Mario Draghi, Joe Biden, Katherine Tai Organizations: European Commission, South China Morning, Getty, U.S, CNBC, European Union, European Central Bank, U.S . Trade Locations: Wan Chai, South, China, EU, Pennsylvania, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB's Makhlouf: Expect a change in rates in June in the absence of shocksGabriel Makhlouf, governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, tells CNBC's Karen Tso that he expects a change in the European Central Bank's policy on interest rates, barring any unexpected events.
Persons: Gabriel Makhlouf, Karen Tso Organizations: Central Bank of Ireland
The IMF upgraded Tuesday its forecast for US economic growth to 2.7% this year — 0.6 percentage points higher than it predicted as recently as January. The Washington-based IMF expects the 20 countries that use the euro to grow just 0.8% this year, a downgrade of 0.1 percentage points from its January forecast. The global economy, meanwhile, is seen expanding by 3.2%, 0.1 percentage points more than predicted in January. China’s economy, the second-largest in the world, is forecast to grow 4.6%, while India is expected to notch growth of 6.8%. In contrast to the United States, “there is little evidence of overheating” in the euro area, according to Gourinchas.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, , Gourinchas, it’s, , ” Gourinchas, Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, UBS, European Central Bank, Reuters Locations: United States, Washington, China’s, India, Europe, China
Those what-ifs could further roil gas and oil prices. But if there’s further conflict, he said, “you’d see a much higher premium for oil prices. If there’s a de-escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, they said, oil prices should come down over the next few weeks. But if there’s an escalation in conflict, they expect that oil prices could jump to more than $100 per barrel, they wrote in a note Monday. Retail sales rose 0.7% in March from the prior month, a slower pace than February’s upwardly revised 0.9% gain, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
Persons: New York CNN —, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, ” Dimon, Jerome Powell, We’ll, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Dave Sekera, Israel doesn’t, , , Moody’s, there’s, Chris Isidore, Pete Muntean, Sam Salehpour, Read, Bryan Mena, Claire Tassin Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow, JPMorgan, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Bank, Bank of Canada, Seven, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Morningstar, Nvidia, AMD, Wall Street Journal, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Boeing, Federal Aviation Administration, Alaska Airlines, Commerce Department, Morning, Amazon Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine, China, United States, Washington ,, Iran, Israel, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday said the central bank remains on course to cut interest rates in the near term, subject to any major shocks. Lagarde said the ECB would monitor oil prices "very closely" amid elevated fears of a spillover conflict in the Middle East. However, since Iran's unprecedented air attack on Israel over the weekend, she said the oil price reaction had been "relatively moderate." Her comments come shortly after the central bank gave its clearest indication to date that it could start cutting interest rates during its June meeting. The ECB on Thursday held interest rates steady at a record high for the fifth consecutive meeting, but signaled that cooling inflation means it could begin trimming soon.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, CNBC's Sara Eisen Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Israel
The dollar stood just off its highest since early November against a handful of peer currencies on Tuesday, raising intervention worries as the yen languished at its lowest level since 1990 following hotter-than-expected U.S. retail sales. The dollar stood just off its highest since early November against a handful of peer currencies on Tuesday, raising intervention worries as the yen languished at its lowest level since 1990 following hotter-than-expected U.S. retail sales. In the U.S., retail sales rose 0.7% last month, compared with the 0.3% rise that economists polled by Reuters had forecast. The Japanese yen languished under the dollar's continued strength and large interest rate differential between the two countries, breaching 154 to hit a fresh 34-year low against the dollar on Monday. The offshore Chinese yuan was mostly unchanged at 7.2620 per dollar ahead of the key economic data releases out of China.
Persons: Matt Simpson, Shunichi Suzuki, Index's Simpson, bitcoin Organizations: Reuters, Federal Reserve, U.S ., U.S, Traders, Japanese Finance, European Central Bank Locations: China, U.S, Middle
Yen crumbles under towering dollar and U.S. Treasury yields
  + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
In this photo illustration, the man is holding several U.S. dollar bills with some Chinese yuan in the background. The yen struggled to break away from a 34-year low on Friday and was headed for a weekly decline, while the dollar hovered near a five-month high alongside U.S. Treasury yields as traders heavily scaled back bets for a slew of U.S. rate cuts this year. The yen was last marginally higher at 153.17 per dollar, languishing near a 34-year trough of 153.32 per dollar hit in the previous session on the back of a surge in U.S. Treasury yields, which the dollar/yen pair tends to closely track. The benchmark 10-year yield was last at 4.5784%, flirting with a five-month peak of 4.5930% hit in the previous session. The renewed dollar strength also weighed on the Australian and New Zealand dollars , which each fell 0.02%.
Persons: Tony Sycamore, Shunichi Suzuki, David Doyle Organizations: U.S, Treasury, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, IG, Japanese Finance, ECB, New, Macquarie Locations: U.S, United States, freefall, Tokyo, New Zealand
Oil prices head back up on Middle East jitters
  + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A view of an oil well at Arab Desert in Jebel Dukhan, Bahrain on March 4, 2024. Oil prices rose in early trade on Friday on heightened tensions in the Middle East, where Iran has promised to retaliate for a suspected Israeli air strike on its embassy in Syria, which could risk disruptions to supply from the oil producing region. Israel is keeping up its war in Gaza but is also preparing for scenarios in other areas, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday. "The European Central Bank's decision to leave policy rates unchanged ... was expected, but accompanying statements open the door for near-term monetary easing," S&P Global Market Intelligence said in a note. However in the U.S., Federal Reserve officials signalled on Thursday no rush to cut interest rates, as sticky U.S. inflation remains a concern.
Persons: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Benjamin Netanyahu Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, Israel, Washington, ANZ Research, Organization of, Petroleum, P Global Market Intelligence, Federal Locations: Jebel Dukhan, Bahrain, Iran, Syria, Damascus, Gaza, Israel, Tehran, Europe, U.S
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